Daily Meeting 07/25/2025

07/25/2025 Market summary:      

• Today's market overview:

* 30 -year mortgage rates as of 07/25/2025

          Source: Bloomberg

• U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting intraday and closing all-time highs. U.S. stocks have hit new highs recently, mainly benefiting from the strong performance of corporate earnings season, and the tariff issue has gradually become clear. The three major stock indexes have all recorded weekly gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 208.01 points , or 0.47% , to close at 44,901.92 points. The Nasdaq rose 50.36 points, or 0.24% , to close at 21,108.32 points. The S&P 500 rose 25.29 points, or 0.40% , to close at 6,388.64 points .
  • During the session, the S&P 500 hit a new high of 6,395.82 points, and the Nasdaq hit a new high of 21,159.80 points.
• Today, the S&P 500 recorded its fifth consecutive record close this week, the first time the index has hit a record closing high every day of the week since November 2021. Today, the Nasdaq index set a record closing for the ninth time in 10 trading days.
• This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26%, the Nasdaq rose 1.02%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.46%.
• 34% of S&P 500 companies have released their second quarter earnings, with 83 % of them exceeding analysts' profit expectations. Earnings increased by 6.4% year-on-year, and revenue increased by 5.0%. In addition, earlier this week, Trump announced a "massive" trade deal with Japan involving a 15% reciprocal tariff. He also said that the United States and Indonesia have reached an agreement on the framework of the trade agreement. Next week, investors will usher in the most intensive week of the earnings season, with 164 S&P companies reporting results. MSFT, META, AAPL and AMZN will be the focus. A number of employment data will also be released next week, and the Federal Reserve will announce the results of the July interest rate meeting on Wednesday.

Monday: Financial reports WM, NUE.

Tuesday: June merchandise trade deficit, wholesale and retail inventories, July consumer confidence index and June job openings. Earnings reports V, PG, UNH, AZN, MRK, BKNG, BA, SPOT, SBUX, RCL, UPS, PYPL, EA.

Wednesday: July ADP employment, second quarter GDP, Fed FOMC meeting results and Powell's speech. Financial reports MSFT, META, QCOM, ARM, LRCX, ADP, MO, HOOD, EQIX, CVNA, VRT, F, EBAY.

Thursday: Initial and continuing unemployment claims, June PCE price index. Earnings reports for AAPL, AMZN, MA, ABBV, KLAC, MSTR, COIN, CVS, NET, CCJ, FSLR, BIIB, ILMN.

Friday: July unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. Financial reports of XOM, CVX, MRNA.

• As the tariff window approaches on August 1 (next Friday), investors are closely watching the progress of trade negotiations:

Trump said he will meet with the EU on Sunday , " We will see if we can reach an agreement with the EU on Sunday ." He believes that the probability of reaching an agreement with the EU is 50% , and there may be 20 "stuck points" facing the agreement . He said that if an agreement is reached, the agreement with the EU will be the largest agreement.

of Commerce database document shows that the U.S. anti-dumping duty on Canadian softwood has been raised to 20.56% from 7.66% last year . The previously announced preliminary rate was 20.07% . The final rate of the anti-subsidy duty on lumber is expected to be announced on August 8 , after the preliminary rate was 14.38% .

• U.S. durable goods orders fell 9.3% month-on-month in June , slightly better than the market's expectation of 10.7% . This is the worst performance since the 2020 epidemic, and the previous value increased by 16.4% . This sharp fluctuation is mainly due to the sharp adjustment of non-defense aircraft orders, which turned from a surge of 230% month-on-month in May to a decline of 50% in June . Excluding the impact of Boeing orders, durable goods orders increased by 0.25% month-on-month , better than the expected 0.1% ; year-on-year growth was 2.23% . Core capital goods shipments rose 0.4% month-on-month , exceeding market expectations of 0.2% . Non-defense capital goods shipments (including aircraft) directly used to calculate GDP fell by 0.9% .
• This Wednesday, the White House released a policy document titled Winning the AI Race: America's AI Action Plan . This 23- page document includes more than 90 administrative recommendations. Domestically, it requires relaxing policy regulations and accelerating the construction of AI infrastructure. Externally, it seeks to make American technology the foundation of global AI and strengthen AI computing and semiconductor export controls to consolidate global leadership.
  • Deutsche Bank analysts said in a recent research report that the Trump administration's use of the phrase " at all costs " indicates that the United States views artificial intelligence as a zero-sum game to reshape the global balance of power. The plan will put tremendous pressure on the US energy infrastructure, with data center electricity consumption expected to soar from 4.4% of the total US electricity in 2023 to 6.7%-12% in 2028. This " all -in AI" strategy may make the United States a high-beta investment target in the field of AI , and the correlation between its economic performance and the development of the AI industry will increase significantly. This feature may become a key factor in determining whether American exceptionalism can survive the impact of the trade war.
• Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 0.32 % ; Britain's FTSE 100 index closed down 0.20 % ; France's CAC40 index closed up 0.21 % .
• Germany's IFO business climate index rose to 88.6 in July from 88.4 in June, lower than the market expectation of 89, but this is the highest since May 2024. The current situation index of 86.5 and the expectation index of 90.7 both improved slightly from the previous month, indicating that corporate pessimism has eased slightly.
• The core consumer price index in Tokyo, Japan , excluding fresh food, rose 2.9% year-on-year in July , lower than the 3.1% increase in June , in line with expectations. However, food price pressures are still intensifying, with the increase in food prices excluding fresh food expanding from 7.2% in June to 7.4 % , continuing to squeeze Japanese household consumption capacity.
  • As a leading indicator of national inflation trends, this data provides a reference for the Bank of Japan's policy meeting to be held next week. Although the decline in overall inflation provides room for maintaining loose policies, structural food inflation and global trade uncertainties still pose dual pressures. The market generally expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged next week.
• Oil prices closed lower on Friday. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.32% to close at $65.16 per barrel.
• . Gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.13 % to $3,392.50 an ounce .
• the close, Bitcoin fell 0.94 % to $ 117,238.60
• Nine of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the materials sector leading the gains at 1.17 % and the energy sector leading the decline at 0.40 % .
• Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought $7.4 million worth of Tesla shares on the dip.

Business Insider reported that Tesla plans to launch Robotaxi in San Francisco this weekend. TSLA rose 3.52% to close at $ 316.06

• Nvidia hit an all-time high of $174.72 during trading on Thursday. Next week, more tech giants will release earnings reports that will reflect the scale of investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. On Friday, NVDA closed down 0.14% at $173.50
• Piper Sandler gave Palantir an overweight rating for the first time, with a target price of $ 170 . Analysts said the stock will provide "unique growth." PLTR hit $ 160.39 in early trading on Friday , with a market value of $ 375 billion, making it the 20th largest company in the United States ; it closed up 2.54% at $158.80
• AST SpaceMobile announced plans to issue $500 million of convertible senior notes due 2032 through a private placement. ASTS fell 9.53% to $ 54.33
• Oppenheimer upgraded online used car retailer Carvana to outperform. The analyst said Carvana 's "business model is ' thriving' and is generating significant cash flow" while also gaining scale and taking advantage of industry demand trends. CVNA rose 1.85% to $ 332.12
• The Federal Communications Commission approved the $8 billion merger of Paramount and Skydance Media on Thursday. PARA fell 1.58% to close at $ 13.05
• the FDA to crack down on counterfeit weight loss drugs due to safety issues . HIMS stock price quickly fell to an intraday low of $54.30 , and then gradually recovered its losses. As of the close, HIMS rose 0.58% to $57.65
• As the stock market continues to hit new highs, the U.S. stock market has once again been swept by the meme stock craze. In this round of craze, after Eric Jackson, founder of EMJ Capital , posted a series of posts on the social platform X to encourage buying, the digital real estate stock Opendoor became the focus of retail investors and quickly topped the list of most active transactions. On Friday, OPEN rose 4.96% to close at $2.54 , up 12.89% this week, and soared 43% on Monday to $4.97 . The trading volume on that day accounted for nearly 10% of the total trading volume of the U.S. stock market . The activity of the options market even exceeded the single-day peak during the GameStop craze in 2021 . In addition, Krispy Kreme also saw a sharp rise this week. On Friday, DNUT rose 2.55% to close at $4.42 , up 41.21% this week, and rose to $5.24 on Tuesday . Some traditional Meme stocks also made a comeback. The huge short positions in department store Kohl's made it a popular choice among retail investors. On Friday, KSS fell 6.16% to close at $12.79 , up 33.51% this week, and rose to $16.93 on Tuesday .
  • Media reports said that this round of Meme stock craze involves fewer stocks than in 2021 , but the rise is more unstable and often short-lived, partly because institutional traders on Wall Street have established a set of response strategies that can identify and respond to Meme- driven market trends more quickly, causing the rise to quickly lose momentum.
• Intel announced after the market yesterday that its second-quarter revenue exceeded expectations, and its core data center and AI revenue also exceeded expectations. However, the adjusted loss per share was $ 0.10 , far below the market's expected earnings. The third-quarter earnings guidance was only "break-even", which was again 4 cents below the market's expected earnings per share . CEO Lip-Bu Tan said in a conference call that the company will cancel some factory projects and take a more conservative approach to future spending. The company confirmed that it will lay off 15% of its employees and plans to reduce the total number of employees by more than 20% from the end of the second quarter to about 50% by the end of the year. 75,000 people. Aims to achieve the goal of reducing operating expenses to $ 17 billion by 2025. INTC fell 8.53% today and closed at $20.70
• Charter Communications earnings per share of $9.18, far below Wall Street's expectations of $9.58; revenue increased 0.6% year-on-year to $13.77 billion, in line with expectations. Charter added 500,000 mobile line users this quarter, basically in line with Wall Street expectations; its Internet, video and wired voice service users lost about 417,000. CHTR fell 18.49% to close at $ 309.75
• Health insurer Centene reported an adjusted loss of 16 cents per share in the second quarter, its first quarterly loss since the second quarter of 2012. Revenue rose 22% year-over-year to $48.7 billion, beating analysts' expectations of $44.1 billion. The health benefit ratio, which measures the percentage of premiums paid out to cover medical expenses, soared to 93% from 87.6% a year ago, beating analysts' expectations of 91.3%. CNC rose 6.09% to $ 28.39
• HCA Healthcare, a large hospital chain, reported a 24% increase in adjusted earnings per share and a 6.4% increase in revenue in the second quarter, both exceeding expectations; the company raised its full-year earnings and revenue expectations. HCA closed down 2.10% at $ 334.32
• Deckers Outdoor's first-quarter results yesterday exceeded Wall Street expectations, with Hoka sales soaring 20% and UGG sales increasing 19%, both higher than expected. DECK rose 11.35 % today to close at $ 116.85
• The VIX index fell 2.99 % today to 14.93 .