Daily Meeting 07/24/2025

0 7 / 2 4 /2025 Market summary:      

• Today's market overview:

* 30 - year mortgage rates as of 07/24/2025

          Source: Bloomberg

• U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 300 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs. As U.S. stocks hit new highs, JPMorgan Chase continues to be bullish. Investors are paying attention to the continued confrontation between Trump and the Federal Reserve. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell slightly last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 316.38 points, or 0.70% , to 44,693.91 points; the Nasdaq rose 37.94 points , or 0.18%, to 21,057.96 points ; the S&P 500 rose 4.44 points, or 0.07% , to 6,363.35 points.
• Trump has repeatedly expressed his hope that Powell will cut interest rates. U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson said that other operations of the Fed may affect the independence of monetary policy. Before Trump's on-site inspection, the media reported that a U.S. House of Representatives committee investigated the renovation of the Fed headquarters; Fed staff led media reporters to visit the construction site. The U.S. president usually does not visit the Fed in person, which reflects the Fed's long-standing independent relationship with the White House.
• Azoria Capital filed a lawsuit in a federal court in Washington on Thursday, claiming that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings of the Federal Reserve have long been held behind closed doors, a practice that violates government transparency regulations. The fund asked the court to order the Federal Reserve to make public the content of its July 29-30 monetary policy meeting.
• Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000 in the week ended July 19 , still the lowest level since mid-April. This is the longest losing streak since 2022 , and the data is also lower than the expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits was basically flat at 1.96 million.
• US Markit manufacturing PMI in July fell to 49.5 , the lowest since December last year ; the initial value of the service PMI was 55.2 , the highest since December last year ; the initial value of the composite PMI was 54.6 , the highest since December last year. Business confidence in the manufacturing and service industries for the next year has fallen to one of the lowest levels in the past two and a half years. Inflationary pressures have intensified.
• The European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.24%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 0.85%, the French CAC 40 index fell 0.41%, the German DAX index rose 0.23% and the Spanish IBEX index rose 1.34%.
• On Thursday local time, the ECB announced an interest rate decision showing that the deposit facility rate of the European Central Bank in the euro area was 2%, the marginal lending rate of the European Central Bank in the euro area was 2.4%, and the main refinancing rate of the European Central Bank in the euro area was 2.15%, all in line with market expectations and previous values. However, since it is not clear how the tariffs will eventually be implemented, the ECB did not provide any forward guidance on the subsequent policy path. The ECB pointed out in its statement that "current inflation has reached the medium-term target of 2%, which is a key milestone in this round of policy cycle. Although wage growth is still high, it has slowed down recently and domestic price pressures are easing.
• Indeed's wage tracker shows that overall U.S. wage growth is outpacing inflation, but the advantage has narrowed to the smallest in the past 12 months, according to a report released Thursday. As of June , about 60% of employed people's wages grew faster than the cost of living, meaning that the remaining 40% of people's income has not kept up with inflation.
• WTI crude oil rose 0.17% to close at $66.03 per barrel.
• Gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.13% to close at $3,426.5 per ounce.
• As of the close, Bitcoin fell 0.28% to $118,450.80
• Three of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the energy sector leading the gains with a gain of 0.71% and the consumer discretionary sector leading the decline with a loss of 1.23%.
• Trump denied that he was trying to destroy the business empire of his former ally Musk in retaliation for a dispute between the two over the tax reform bill. "Everyone is saying that I will destroy Elon's company by depriving him of some, or even all, of the massive subsidies he receives from the U.S. Government. This is not true! I want Elon, and all businesses in our Country, to thrive," Trump posted on social media on Thursday. "The better they do, the better America does, which is good for all of us. We are setting records every day, and I hope to keep this momentum going!" the U.S. President added. TSLA fell 8.20% to close at $305.30
• American Eagle Outfitters shares rose after launching an ad campaign starring actress Sydney Sweeney. AEO rose 4.25% to $11.28
• United Health Care said it is cooperating with the Department of Justice's criminal and civil investigation into its health insurance billings. The company said it is "confident" in its approach. UNH fell 4.76% to $278.58
• Bloom Energy has reached an agreement with Oracle to provide on-site power for Oracle's artificial intelligence data center. BE rose 22.95% to close at $33.06
• Honeywell's revenue grew 8% to $10.4 billion, higher than the expected $10.06 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.75, up 10% from the same period last year, higher than the analyst consensus of $2.66 per share. HON fell 6.18% to $224.48
  • The company's Building Automation division performed well, with organic sales growth of 8% and segment profit growth of 21%, thanks to strong demand for fire, security and building management systems. The Aerospace division also achieved solid organic growth of 6%, thanks to double-digit growth in the defense and aerospace segments. However, organic sales in the Industrial Automation division were flat, with a 4% decline in the Warehouse and Workflow Solutions division and a 7% decline in the Productivity Solutions and Services division due to weak demand in Europe. The division's segment profit fell 4%, and although the profit margin improved slightly to 19.2%, overall profitability remained under pressure. The company's overall segment profit margin fell 10 basis points to 22.9%, and the operating profit margin fell 30 basis points to 20.4%, raising questions about cost control and pricing capabilities amid continued inflation and acquisition integration costs.
  • The company raised its full-year adjusted earnings per share forecast to a range of $10.45 to $10.65 from a range of $10.20 to $10.50, and forecast organic growth of 4% to 5%, above expectations of 2% to 5%.
• Intel's total revenue for the quarter was $12.9 billion, the same as the same period last year, but much higher than the market's general expectation of $11.88 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.10, lower than the market's general expectation of $0.01. At the business unit level , Intel's Client Computing Group revenue was $7.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, but higher than the market's general expectation of $7.29 billion. Data center and artificial intelligence revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year to $3.9 billion, higher than the expected $3.73 billion. Intel's foundry business revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to $4.42 billion, higher than the expected $4.39 billion. INTC fell 3.66% to close at $22.63; INTC fell 4.15 % after the market.
  • Looking ahead, Intel expects third-quarter revenue of $12.6 billion to $13.6 billion, with a midpoint of $13.1 billion, well above estimates of $12.64 billion. The chipmaker expects adjusted earnings per share of zero, compared with expectations of $0.04.
• Blackstone's total assets are $1.211 trillion, while Visible Alpha expects $1.196 trillion, up from $1.168 trillion as of March 31, 2025. Fee-based assets under management (AUM) increased to $887.1 billion from $860.1 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2025. Second-quarter distributable earnings per share were $1.21, above the consensus estimate of $1.10, up from $1.09 in the first quarter and $0.96 in the second quarter of last year. Revenues were $3.71 billion (up 33.0% year-over-year), $900 million above expectations. BX rose 3.58% to $178.11
  • Fee-related income in the second quarter was $1.46 billion, or $1.19 per share, above the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of $1.36 billion, and up from $1.26 billion, or $1.03 per share, in the first quarter and $1.11 billion, or $0.91 per share, in the second quarter of last year. Net management and consulting fees were $2.02 billion, up from $1.89 billion in the previous quarter and $1.78 billion in the same period last year.
• L3Harris Technologies' revenue grew 2% to $5.43 billion, beating analysts' expectations of $5.32 billion. Adjusted earnings per share grew 16% from the same period last year to $2.78, beating analysts' expectations of $2.49. GAAP earnings per share were $2.44. LHX rose 1.34% to $273.2
  • L3Harris received $8.3 billion in new orders this quarter, and its book-to-bill ratio reached a record 1.5 times, indicating strong revenue growth in the future. The book-to-bill ratio is a key growth metric that indicates whether new orders (i.e., bookings) are keeping pace with or exceeding current revenue (i.e., shipments).
  • Encouraged by its first-half results, L3Harris raised its full-year non-GAAP earnings per share forecast to $10.40 to $10.60, up from $10.30 to $10.50 previously. Revenue is now expected to be about $21.75 billion, at the high end of its previous outlook.
• Newmont's second quarter non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.43, exceeding expectations by $0.27. Revenue was $5.32 billion (up 20.9% year-over-year), exceeding expectations by $400 million. Newmont's board of directors authorized the company to execute an additional $3 billion stock repurchase plan at its discretion. NEM rose 0.15% to $61.51; NEM rose 4.05% after the market closed.
• Deutsche Bank's second quarter GAAP earnings per share were 0.48 euros, 0.10 euros below expectations. Revenue was 7.8 billion euros (up 2.6% year-on-year), 70 million euros higher than expected. DB rose 7.83% to $33.73
  • The company said that excluding litigation costs at Postbank, second-quarter pretax profit was 2.4 billion euros, up 34% from a year earlier. Second-quarter bond and currency trading revenue rose 11% year-on-year to 2.28 billion euros, beating consensus estimates of 2.2 billion euros. Second-quarter pre-provision profit was 2.84 billion euros, down from 3.31 billion euros in the first quarter but up from 887 million euros in the second quarter of last year. Second-quarter net interest income was 3.84 billion euros, up from 3.67 billion euros in the previous quarter and 3.02 billion euros in the same period last year. Credit loss provisions were 423 million euros, down from 471 million euros in the first quarter and 476 million euros in the second quarter of last year.
• The VIX index rose 0.13% today to 15.39.