Daily Meeting 07/22/2025

07/22/2025 Daily Meeting:       
•    Today's market overview:

*30 -year mortgage rates as of 07/22/2025
Source：Bloomberg

•    U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high, and the chip sector dragging down the Nasdaq. Several technology giants are about to release their earnings reports. Trump announced a trade agreement with the Philippines and Indonesia. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179.37 points, or 0.40% , to 44,502.44 points; the Nasdaq fell 81.49 points, or 0.39% , to 20,892.69 points; and the S&P 500 rose 4.02 points, or 0.06% , to 6,309.62 points.
•    According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing activity index in the United States rose to -10.3 in July , from -25.0 in the previous month . The index has been negative for nine consecutive months. The overall business activity index rose from -17.3 to 10.2 in July. The new order index rose from -20.1 to 9.7 . The price paid index rose from 29.7 to 32.5 . The full-time employment index rose from -2.1 to 4.1 . The regional business activity outlook index for the next six months rose from -8.2 to -3.9 .
•    Trump said the United States and the Philippines have reached a trade deal that will reduce tariffs on Philippine exports to the United States from 20% to 19% , the latest agreement reached before the August 1 negotiation deadline. Trump announced the deal shortly after meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. However, the small size of the tariff reduction highlights the difficulties foreign leaders face in trying to convince Trump to cut his previously announced unilateral "reciprocal" tariffs. "The Philippines will open its market to the United States and have zero tariffs. The Philippines will pay a 19% tariff. In addition, we will cooperate militarily," Trump wrote on social media on Tuesday.
•    Trump also claimed a trade deal with Indonesia. The two sides agreed that Indonesia will open its market to American industrial and technology products and agricultural products, removing 99% of tariff barriers. The United States can now sell American-made products to Indonesia at zero tariffs, while all Indonesian exports to the United States, the best market in the world, are subject to a 19% tariff. In addition, Indonesia will supply the United States with its precious critical minerals and sign major agreements worth tens of billions of dollars to purchase Boeing aircraft, American agricultural products, and American energy. This agreement is a huge win for our automakers, technology companies, workers, farmers, ranchers, and manufacturers. "
•    Canada's prime minister said on Tuesday he would not risk everything to reach a trade deal with the United States. Canada's prime minister sought to lower expectations for a trade deal with the United States in the next 10 days, saying negotiations were difficult because the Trump administration kept changing its goals . " Canada will not accept a bad deal. Our goal is not to get a deal at any cost ," Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters after meeting with provincial leaders in Huntsville, Ontario . " We are pursuing a deal that is in the best interest of Canadians ." He added: " The United States has many goals and they change frequently."
•    U.S. President Donald Trump said he is considering a proposal to eliminate capital gains taxes on home sales in an effort to boost the housing market.
•    The European Stoxx 600 fell 0.41% , the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.12% , the French CAC 40 fell 0.69% , the German DAX fell 1.09% and the Spanish IBEX rose 0.071% .
•    WTI crude oil fell 0.97% to close at $ 65.31 per barrel .
•    Gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.09% to close at $ 3,443.7 per ounce .
•    As of the close, Bitcoin rose 1.80% to $119,565.60
•    Nine of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 rose, led by the healthcare sector, which rose 1.90% , and the technology sector, which fell 1.08% .
•    The legal showdown between Tesla and the California Department of Motor Vehicles ( DMV ) officially kicked off in Oakland on Monday, with hearings set to last five days . California regulators accused Tesla of violating state law by making "false or misleading" statements about its Autopilot autonomous driving assistance system and Full Self-Driving ( FSD ) features in 2021 and 2022. At the heart of the dispute is that Tesla has long referred to its assisted driving software as " Autopilot " and " Full Self- Driving ," names that easily mislead people into thinking the vehicle can be fully autonomous. The DMV is seeking to suspend or revoke Tesla's dealer license in California. If the request is supported, Tesla would risk losing its sales eligibility in the most populous state in the United States. TSLA rose 1.10% to close at $332.11
•    According to media reports, Meta Platforms recently poached two top researchers who play an important role in the field of AI from Apple . This is the second time since the beginning of this year that Meta has successfully " plundered" core AI talents from Apple, dropping a bombshell on the evolving " AI arms race ." It is reported that during their time at Apple, the two researchers were deeply involved in Apple's next-generation core AI technology research and development projects, and made outstanding contributions to Apple's strategic goal of improving Siri's intelligence level and deploying more powerful and privacy-focused artificial intelligence on the device side. Their expertise in co-optimization of generative artificial intelligence models and device-side hardware acceleration is seen as a key driver of Apple's breakthrough progress. META fell 1.14% to close at $704.81
•    Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, launched its perpetual futures products to U.S. traders on Monday. Currently, the platform allows users to trade two perpetual futures contracts - mini Bitcoin perpetual futures and mini Ethereum perpetual futures. "For years, U.S. cryptocurrency traders have watched their international peers use one of the most popular tools in the digital asset market - perpetual futures. Due to the complex regulatory environment, these tools have been out of reach for U.S. traders. But now things are different." Coinbase further explained that users can trade these new perpetual futures products with up to 10x leverage. Unlike traditional futures products that expire on a monthly or quarterly basis, these products have a term of 5 years. The exchange said this allows users to choose more flexible long-term trading strategies. The transaction fee for each contract starts at 0.02% . COIN fell 2.22% to close at $404.44
•    's adjusted earnings per share for Q2 were $ 1.76 , higher than the market's general expectation of $ 1.69 . Total revenue for the quarter was $ 10.6 billion, up 9% year-over-year , but lower than the expected $ 10.63 billion. SAP's current cloud business order volume surged 28% to $ 21.26 billion at a constant exchange rate. Cloud business revenue also grew 28% year-over-year to $ 6.03 billion at a constant exchange rate. SaaS/PaaS revenue soared 30% to $ 5.93 billion at a constant exchange rate . SAP fell 0.32% to close at $306.29 ; SAP fell 3.03% after the market closed.
SAP expects full-year 2025 cloud and software revenue to be between $ 38.9 billion and $ 39.48 billion.
•    Coca-Cola's Q2 revenue increased 0.8% year-on-year to $ 12.5 billion. Comparable earnings per share increased 4% year-on-year to $ 0.87 , while the market generally expected $ 0.84 , which has included the impact of 5 percentage points of exchange rate headwinds. In the second quarter, carbonated soft drink sales fell 1% . Coca-Cola brand sales fell 1% as growth in Europe, the Middle East and Africa was offset by declines in Latin America. Coca-Cola Zero grew 14% , thanks to growth in all regional operating units. KO fell 0.59% to close at $69.66
Looking ahead, full-year organic revenue is still expected to grow 5% to 6% , with a midpoint of 5.5% , while the market is generally expected to grow 5.7% . Coca-Cola expects earnings per share of $ 2.88 , while the market is generally expected to be $ 2.97 . The company also confirmed that it plans to launch a product made with American cane sugar to expand its Coca-Cola trademark product line. The product launch is designed to complement the company's strong core product portfolio and provide more choices for consumers with different occasions and preferences.
Philip Morris International's earnings per share were $ 1.91 , while the market generally expected $ 1.86 and $ 1.59 in the same period last year . Revenue was $ 10.14 billion (up 7.1% year-on-year ), $ 190 million lower than expected. PM fell 8.43% to $165.27
Looking ahead, the tobacco giant expects full-year adjusted earnings per share of $ 7.43 to $ 7.56 (midpoint of $ 7.495 ), compared with its previous forecast of $ 7.36 to $ 7.49 and the consensus estimate of $ 7.49 .
•    RTX 's adjusted earnings per share were $ 1.56 , exceeding analysts' consensus estimate of $ 1.43 . Revenue for the quarter was $ 21.6 billion, higher than Wall Street's expectation of $ 20.63 billion, up 9% year-over-year . The company's order backlog was $ 236 billion, including $ 144 billion in commercial orders and $ 92 billion in defense orders. RTX fell 1.58% to $149.17
Despite the strong quarter, RTX lowered its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $ 5.80 to $ 5.95 from a previous range of $ 6.00 to $ 6.15 . The company cited the impact of new tariffs and changes to the U.S. tax code as key factors in the lowered outlook. However, management raised its revenue guidance to a range of $84.75 billion to $85.5 billion from a previous range of $ 83 billion to $ 84 billion, and reiterated its free cash flow target of $ 7 billion to $ 7.5 billion.
•    Texas Instrument's second quarter GAAP earnings per share were $ 1.41 , exceeding expectations by $ 0.08 . Revenue was $ 4.45 billion (annual growth of 16.5% ), exceeding expectations by $ 130 million. TXN rose 0.16% to $214.92 ; TXN fell 11.32% after the market closed.
The company also released guidance for third quarter revenue and EPS ranges. Revenue is expected to be $ 3.45 billion to $ 4.8 billion (compared to the consensus estimate of $ 4.55 billion), while GAAP EPS is expected to be $ 1.36 to $ 1.60 (compared to the consensus estimate of $ 1.49 ). However, these figures do not reflect the changes brought about by the recent US tax reform bill.
•    Intuitive Surgical's second quarter Non-GAAP EPS was $ 2.19 , $ 0.27 higher than expected . Revenue was $ 2.44 billion (up 22.0% year-over-year ), $ 90 million higher than expected. ISRG fell 0.99% to $511.00 ; ISRG fell 0.98% after hours
The company warned that further tariffs could have a significant impact on other financial results. Intuitive Surgical 's press release said the company manufactures most of its instruments and accessories in Mexico; endoscopes in Germany; and raw materials imported from China.
•    Danaher Corporation reported revenue of $ 5.9 billion for the quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations by $ 60 million. Its biotechnology and diagnostics divisions contributed approximately $ 1.9 billion and $ 2.3 billion in revenue, up 8% and 2% year-over-year, respectively , while its life sciences division contributed approximately $ 1.8 billion in revenue, up approximately 1% year-over-year . DHR 's adjusted earnings per share reached $ 1.80 , exceeding analysts' expectations by $ 0.16 , and its adjusted operating margin was flat year-over-year at 27.3% , while the market generally expected 25.4% . DHR rose 0.98% to $189.91
Danaher Corporation raised its full-year adjusted profit. The EPS forecast was raised to $ 7.70 to $ 7.80 per share from the $ 7.60 to $ 7.75 per share forecast in April , in line with market consensus. At the same time, the company announced that current CFO Matthew McGrew will retire after more than two decades at the company. Matthew Gugino, CFO of the company's Life Sciences Innovation Group, is expected to take over McGrew's role as CFO on February 28 , 2026 .
•    Lockheed Martin reported revenue of $ 18.2 billion, below the $ 18.54 billion consensus analyst estimate and only slightly above the $ 18.1 billion in the same period last year. Net income plummeted to $ 342 million, or $ 1.46 per share, down from $ 1.6 billion, or $ 6.85 per share, in the same period last year . The decline was due to huge write-downs related to troubled aerospace and helicopter programs. LMT fell 10.81% to $410.74
Despite the weak results, Lockheed Martin maintained its full-year 2025 guidance, including sales of $ 73.75 billion to $ 74.75 billion; free cash flow of $ 6.6 billion to $ 6.8 billion; and diluted earnings per share of $ 21.70 to $ 22.00 .
•    General Motors' earnings per share were $ 2.53 , down 17% from the same period last year , but 5 cents higher than Wall Street's expectations. Revenue fell 1.8% from the same period last year to $ 47.12 billion, $ 1.12 billion higher than expected . GM fell 8.12% to $48.89
Mary Barra acknowledged the challenges of the company's reliance on overseas manufacturing in a letter to shareholders. " We are adapting to new trade and tax policies and a rapidly evolving technology landscape to position ourselves for long-term profitability ," Barra said in a letter to shareholders. Mitigation measures include $ 4 billion in new investments at U.S. assembly plants to add capacity for 300,000 high-margin light pickup trucks, full-size SUVs and crossovers.
Some of the pressure on GM's shares to fall in early trading was offset by the company's reaffirmation of solid full-year earnings guidance despite the challenges ahead in the next 12 months.
•    DR Horton's third-quarter GAAP earnings per share rose to $ 3.36 from $ 4.10 in the same period last year , far exceeding analysts' average expectation of $ 2.90 . Revenue was $ 9.23 billion, higher than analysts' general expectation of $ 8.76 billion and lower than $ 9.97 billion in the third quarter of 2024. DHI rose 16.98% to $153.50
The largest U.S. homebuilder now expects fiscal 2025 revenue of $ 33.7 billion to $ 34.2 billion (midpoint: $ 34.0 billion, consensus: $ 33.9 billion), compared with its previous outlook of $ 33.3 billion to $ 34.8 billion. It also expects homebuilding volumes of 85,000 to 85,500 units, compared with its previous outlook of 85,000 to 87,000 units.
•    The VIX index fell 0.90% today to 16.50 .